Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

The yield curve is a graphical representation that plots the interest rates of bonds with equal credit quality but varying maturity dates. A normal yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher ...

North American yield curves are experiencing the steepest inversion of the last 3 decades, while European yield curves have flattened significantly in 2022. In the world of fixed income investing, ...

The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

Economists often look to the US Treasury bond market for clues about when a recession might come. Specifically, they examine the so-called yield curve. When it’s “inverted,” as it has been since about ...

Later in this article, I will display a chart revealing a consistent pattern of when a recession is most likely to begin. From a trader's viewpoint, pattern recognition is essential for successful ...

After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...

There is much talk these days about the yield curve, and what its shape can tell us about the future of markets. I will not review the analytics of the curve because it is exhaustively covered in the ...

Here at The Indicator we've been on recession watch ever since the yield curve inverted at the end of last year. For the uninitiated, the yield curve shows different interest rates on government bonds ...

There’s almost certainly a recession on the way, and we closed-end fund (CEF) investors have a big edge over mainstream investors. That edge is our high, reliable (and often monthly) CEF dividends.

Because interest rates on government bonds with varying maturities can "behave quite differently," depending on risk perceptions and the overall economic picture at any given time, the yield curve ...